Student Forecasting Tournaments

1st Place: $2,500

2nd – 3rd Place: $1,000 (2 prizes available)

4th – 5th Place: $500 (2 prizes available)

6th – 10th Place: $100 Amazon digital gift card

11th – 40th Place: $50 Amazon digital gift card

And when the students you refer register, you’ll be entered to win prizes worth up to $400, too! Email forecasting@alliancefordecisioneducation.org to let us know you shared about this tournament with your students.

Cost: Free!

Start Date: March 31, 2025

Registration Deadline: March 30, 2025

Duration: Weekly questions for six weeks

Open to: US-based middle and high school students (ages 13-19)

Forecasting involves making predictions about a future event or outcome based on historical and current data.

Forecasting is an essential part of making decisions. Through forecasting, students develop applied decision-making skills such as exploring base rates, evaluating data sources, updating their beliefs, resisting cognitive biases, and thinking probabilistically. These skills align with the Decision Education K-12 Learning Domains.

1. 1. Students register (with parent permission!) at ForecastingTheFuture.org by March 30, 2025.
   2. On March 31, 2025 – the tournament begins!
   3. Students watch short videos through the ForecastingTheFuture.org platform that teaches them the various skills and concepts that go into being a stronger forecaster.
      1. Teachers: while class time is not required, if you have multiple students (or a whole class!) participating, previous teachers have found it useful to discuss and explore topics together.
   4. Students apply these skills to answer forecasting question by submitting their own forecasts on the platform. Previous questions have included topics like, how much money will a new movie make on opening weekend at the box office?
   5. Once the results are known, students’ forecasting scores are calculated and the leaderboard is updated. (See how scores are calculated below.)
   6. Students learn and put their skills to the test throughout the tournament—all while climbing the leaderboard!
   7. At the end of six weeks, winners are determined!

Your Relative Brier Score measures accuracy, with earlier and more precise forecasts earning better scores. Like in golf, a lower score is better. The closer to 0, the higher your rank on the leaderboard! To learn more about how forecasts are scored and what a Relative Brier Score is, please visit this link.

• Make better decisions: Forecasting teaches students to consider possible outcomes based on data and trends, which helps them make more informed and thoughtful decisions—during the tournament and beyond.
• Become a data wizard: In a world driven by data, knowing how to use it is a must. Forecasting supports students in gathering data, understanding patterns, and making sense of the information swirling around them.
• Dodge mental traps: We all have blind spots, and forecasting can train students to spot and avoid common thinking mistakes—making them more objective in their choices.
• Make learning fun: Throughout the tournament, students compete to make the most accurate predictions based on things they’ve learned in other subjects and the information they gather. They build real world skills through this fun, gamified experience.
• Stand out: Participating in a national forecasting tournament is a rare and impressive achievement! It looks great on college applications and shows a student’s motivation to keep learning and growing.

If you have any questions or need help, you can contact the competition organizers at forecasting@alliancefordecisioneducation.org

If you’re interested in supporting our forecasting tournaments or other initiatives, please visit our Donate page.