Recognizing and Resisting Cognitive Biases
Did you know that much of what we decide every day is not a “decision,” but an unconscious reaction—made when our mind makes a quick assumption on our behalf? These little shortcuts save us from deliberating about each piece of information flowing through our minds in every second of the day.
These shortcuts allow mental efficiency by letting small decisions occur quickly and often unnoticed. But, when a shortcut is flawed because of a cognitive bias, it can sometimes distort reality and impact our decision-making.
Recognizing and Resisting Cognitive Biases is one of the four K-12 Learning Domains of Decision Education.
In the Classroom
Through Decision Education, students will identify and practice strategies for recognizing and resisting cognitive biases to bolster awareness of thinking processes.
Recognizing and Resisting Cognitive Biases
To make decisions, we must process the vast amount of information we take in from the world around us. Our brains rely on mental shortcuts, or heuristics, to simplify information quickly and respond accordingly. In general, these shortcuts are helpful—they are the “wiring” in our brains that decreases our mental load and increases our efficiency, usually without us even realizing it. Sometimes, however, these shortcuts can lead to errors in our thinking called cognitive biases.
Recognizing and Resisting Cognitive Biases is one of the four domains in Decision Education because cognitive biases unwittingly impact much of everyone’s thinking, often leading our decisions in unintended directions.
Decades of research have shown that by recognizing cognitive biases in ourselves and others we can resist their impact, making more conscious and deliberate decisions.
Quick History
The term cognitive bias was first developed in the 1970s by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, who after years of research found that people often had flawed patterns of thinking and reacting when faced with decisions. Kahneman, following Tversky’s death, went on to write the now globally acclaimed: Thinking, Fast and Slow, which details how cognitive biases impact decision-making.
About Cognitive Biases
Researchers and scientists continue to document the number of cognitive biases that can trip up our decision-making. Some scientists have the number as high as 188. Below, we highlight a few of the most common.
It is important to learn how to identify these biases, and then watch out for them so that they do not negatively impact our decision-making. Keep in mind that you, or others, can be influenced by more than one cognitive bias at a time.
1. Availability Heuristic
Availability Heuristic
Without realizing it, we can create in our mind a picture of the world or an understanding of a situation based on examples that come most easily into our mind. Often these are examples that elicit strong emotional responses, and thus are highly memorable. The challenge is that what we recall may not apply to the situation at hand, and so we create an incorrect picture.
Examples:
- A vacationer fears going into the water because they recall dramatic reports of shark attacks. They believe these incidents are more common than they truly are.
- A woman buys lottery tickets because she can see the faces and names of recent winners. She imagines her likelihood of winning is stronger than it is. She never sees the faces of those holding losing tickets.
- A person has a fear of flying after hearing recent reports of plane crashes in the news, and erroneously believes these accidents are a common occurrence.
2. Representativeness Heuristic
Representativeness Heuristic
When deciding how likely something is, we tend to make this judgment based on how closely the event or object matches our already existing mental models.
Examples:
- You meet two new professors. You assume the person wearing a tie and glasses is the accounting teacher and the person in a shirt and jeans is the art teacher. You later find the opposite is true.
- A child meets their new neighbor, who reminds them of their grandmother, and makes the assumption she is kind and welcoming like their grandmother.
- You see someone doing homework during lunch instead of eating and you assume they are a procrastinator.
Because we do this in an instant, we can dramatically overestimate how likely what we see is really accurate—people, situations, opportunities—and often make the wrong assumption as a result.
3. Anchoring Effect
Anchoring Effect
Without realizing it, we can make decisions based on the first piece of information we receive, anchoring ourselves to it as if it is the most important data point, even if it is inaccurate or off-base.
Examples:
- A salesman sets the price for a car at $5,000 so that when he negotiates down to $3,000, we assume we have gotten a deal—even though the car is really only valued at $3,000.
- A jacket we like is $120. Above our price range. We look at other similar jackets, but the store only has another option at $800. We buy the $120 jacket, as it now seems reasonably priced.
- Two groups of students are asked to estimate the results of a multiplication problem. Each group was given the same numbers, just in a different sequence. The group whose equation began with small-value numbers returned an estimate far lower than the group whose equation began with large-value numbers.
If the decision is an important one, step back and look for more evidence before making your decision. Your first data point may be accurate, but it also may be far off-base.
4. Confirmation Bias
Confirmation Bias
We unwittingly look for, or look more favorably on, information that confirms what we already believe.
Examples:
- Two neighbors witnessed the same incident between a child and a dog. The neighbor who loves animals says the dog was trying to defend itself against aggressive behavior from the teen. The neighbor who is deathly afraid of dogs says the animal attacked a defenseless child.
- A person who is interested in purchasing a certain brand of car only researches the benefits of owning that car and fails to explore the reported downsides of owning the vehicle.
- Two people text the same friend. Neither gets a response. The first person assumes the friend is busy. The other person, who struggles with low self-esteem, sees this as confirmation that they are not liked.
Confirmation bias impacts how we gather information and how we interpret and recall information. It can keep us from objectively viewing situations or data, and thus can influence the decisions we make.
5. Hindsight Bias
Hindsight Bias
We believe that past events were more predictable than they really were. (Saying “I knew that would happen,” and believing it.)
Examples:
- When college students were asked to predict the outcome of the Supreme Court confirmation hearing for nominee Clarence Thomas, 58% said he would be confirmed. Polled again after the confirmation, 78% said they were sure he’d be approved.
- Hours before the big game, a fan hesitates to place his bet. After his team wins, he grumbles that he just knew they were going to win.
- A letter comes in the mail informing a teenager that he was accepted into the college he was aiming for. His mother says: “I really had a feeling that you were going to get in” (even though she had expressed doubts to his father earlier that week).
6. Attribution Error
Attribution Error
We instinctively explain our own behavior based on situational factors but assume personality-based factors when we look to explain others’ behaviors.
Examples:
- After getting cut off on the highway, a driver attributes the other person’s behavior to recklessness or rudeness rather than thinking about situational reasons, such as that the other person might be late for work or was distracted by a child in the backseat.
- When a student forgets an important assignment, her teacher attributes it to her forgetfulness and disorganization. The student attributes it to having too much homework.
- A dancer gets the lead role in a show. Rather than acknowledging her late nights practicing at the studio and her intense workouts at the gym, others simply think she’s “a natural.”
Making assumptions or excuses impacts our decision-making about ourselves and others.
7. Overconfidence Bias
Overconfidence Bias
We have more confidence in our own abilities, skills, and character than is warranted. We also overestimate the likelihood of things we hope will happen.
Examples:
- Instead of preparing for Saturday’s big game, the team focuses on their previous good record and assumes that this will be an easy win. They forgo a hard practice, and decide to just rest up.
- Despite a downturn in the market’s sales, you continue to support your earlier predictions of a 20% increase in performance without checking recent reports or aligning with the sales team.
Being confident is an asset, but overconfidence can lead to less-than-ideal decisions.
8. Loss Aversion Bias
Loss Aversion Bias
We automatically put more effort into avoiding losses than to attaining potential equivalent gains.
Examples:
- You have an opportunity to interview for a new job, with much higher pay and better benefits. But if your current employer finds out you are interviewing, you will likely be let go, plus, you may like the new job a lot less. You forgo the interview and remain in a job you have outgrown.
- Two groups of students are given brochures on a new study aid. The first brochure highlights the benefits of additional tutoring. The second brochure focuses on the potential to avoid poor grades and lower college admissions. The second group of students show more interest in the study aid, based on their fear of negative outcomes—or possible loss.
- Shoppers are offered two coupons. One lets them save $5. The other promises that they will earn $5 towards a future purchase. The savings coupon (avoidance of loss) outperforms the opportunity of gain.
By focusing more on what we can lose versus what we might gain, we risk missing out on choices that could be in our best short- and long-term interests.
9. Sunk-Cost Fallacy
Sunk-Cost Fallacy
Once we have already invested time, effort, or money in something, we remain committed to it even if the ongoing costs outweigh the benefits.
Examples:
- Your favorite soccer team spent $70 Million on a new striker. Despite a lackluster performance, he continues to start and play most of each game while other, better-performing team members sit on the bench. Instead of cutting their losses, team owners keep hoping he will earn his salary.
- Stan has spent months and thousands of dollars trying to fix up his dad’s old car. It still is not running. While friends tell him he needs to sell it for scrap metal, he keeps working on it, investing more time and more money even though he knows he is spending more than the car would ever be worth when he finishes.
- Charice has spent many hours playing a video game—building new characters, increasing her levels of expertise, and unlocking new skills. She is now a top-ranked player. However, she no longer finds the game entertaining. But, she keeps playing because stopping would mean everything she’s accomplished and invested in will be lost.
This cognitive bias prevents us from making the rational choice to move on in the face of diminished or no returns. We try to regain the time or money we have already lost by irrationally continuing to spend more time or money on a failing effort.
10. Framing Effect
Framing Effect
How information is presented, or framed, can overshadow the actual information.
Examples:
- Patients are more inclined to sign up for a medical procedure with a 90% chance of survival versus one with a 10% chance of mortality—despite the chances being the same.
- Drew tells his mom that all his classmates failed a recent biology exam, but he got a C-, hoping she’ll be relieved instead of angry.
- Shoppers prefer meat that is 75% fat free over the packaging that states less than 25% fat. Framing the positive, with a higher number, wins purchases.
By paying attention to how information is presented to us, we can better judge its accuracy and impact on our decisions.
11. Blindspot Bias
Blindspot Bias
We tend to notice bias less in our own reasoning than in others.
Examples:
- Daniella believed her talent earned her spot on the ice-skating team even when competitors pointed out that she fell twice and her mother is best friends with the coach.
- David defended his professor’s grading standards until he also got a C- on his paper, then he joined his friends in thinking the teacher disliked all basketball players.
- Stevens suspected the other judges were influenced by the defendant’s friendly personality, but believed he remained totally impartial during the testimony.
By listening when others point out possible biases in our views, we can more readily correct them.
12. Present Bias
Present Bias
We worry more about today than next week because the Present Bias, also known as Delay Discounting, makes future consequences or rewards seem less impactful.
Examples:
- Brian has a physical in three months and knows he needs to cut back on his sugar. But when Susan offers him a fresh brownie, he decides to enjoy the gooey goodness now. He figures he’ll recommit to good health tomorrow.
- Mary has been putting every paycheck into her savings account for college, but when she turns 16, she decides to use that money to buy a car.
- In many studies investigating delayed gratification, children were told if they could wait 20 minutes before eating a marshmallow set in front of them, they would get a second marshmallow. Few could wait for the greater reward.
13. Base Rate Neglect
Base Rate Neglect
We tend to overestimate or underestimate the likelihood of something happening even though there is data available to help us draw a more accurate estimation.
Examples:
- You and your brother are both left-handed, so you believe that most people are left-handed, until you see the data that 90% of people are right-handed.
- Jose told his mother not to worry when he got his small-plane pilot license, as data showed that there were fewer than 86 plane crashes in 2016. This likely made his mom feel better, but Jose was looking at the wrong reference class. While commercial airline crashes are exceedingly rare—with just 86 that year—the base rate for small plane crashes is three every day.
We are more likely to consider base rates and avoid unsupported assumptions if we pause and think about the likelihood something might actually occur.
14. Halo Effect
Halo Effect
We unwittingly assume that if someone or something is good at one thing, they excel in other areas as well.
Examples:
- Because Tom was an exceptionally polite student, Mr. Morrison assumed he also was an exceptional student and leader.
- Danielle liked Company B’s paper towels, so she also bought the company’s dish soap, toothpaste, and laundry detergent.
- Layla’s favorite actress, who just won an Oscar, just launched a new line of cosmetics, and Layla’s planning to order them in advance without knowing anything about them.
When we observe an initial attractive feature—strength, intelligence, quality, confidence—we should ensure that we view other information objectively, even if it opposes our initial impression.
15. Polarized Thinking
Polarized Thinking
We instinctively simplify a situation into extremes—It’s black or white, good or bad, always or never—with no room for gray areas in between or nuanced possibilities. Most frequently, this bias pulls our thinking toward the negative.
Examples:
- After being cut from the basketball team, Susie moaned: “I fail at everything I try.”
- Hearing a news report about a bank executive charged with theft, Tony said: “All bankers are crooks.”
- “You always take his side,” Devon shouted after her Mom scolded her for teasing her little brother.
Experts advise we temper this instinctive reaction by pausing before we automatically react and watch for extreme words like “never,” “always,” “everything,” or “nothing.”
16. Bandwagon Effect
Bandwagon Effect
Our decisions can be unconsciously influenced more by what others are doing than by our own beliefs.
Examples:
- Joe had been undecided on who to vote for, but when the polls started showing Candidate B in the lead, he decided that is where his vote would go, too.
- At lunch, all of Dimitira’s friends ordered salads, so she canceled her hamburger and got a salad as well.
- After high school, Julio aimed to get an electrician’s apprenticeship, but when all of his friends talked about college, he started applying as well.
This bias can be helpful if we surround ourselves with positive people and influences. But, it is important to pause to evaluate the reasons for our key decisions, ensuring they reflect our values, and not those of others.
17. Gambler’s Fallacy
Gambler's Fallacy
We incorrectly give random acts a sense of order, or tie them to what happened previously. We believe that if something random, like a roll of the dice, has repeatedly resulted in one outcome, that the next roll must either give the same result or must be something different. The previous results trick our minds into ignoring the fact that the results are always random; there is no order.
Examples:
- Antonio has flipped a coin four times and it has landed on heads each time. He believes it’s more likely that the next flip will be tails because he’s gotten so many heads in a row, despite the fact that the outcome of the coin flip landing heads is still 50 percent.
- Madri was asked to pull from a bag that contained black and one white marbles. After pulling out six straight black marbles, Mardi said the next draw would be black again. But this time it was white.
As this also is a trick of the mind, created by a cognitive bias, experts advise we pause to think about what is happening and realize that one random event cannot dictate or lead to another.
18. In-Group Bias
In-Group Bias
We have a tendency to favor our own group, its members, its characteristics, and its products, particularly in reference to other groups.
Examples:
- Surrounded by other Eagles fans, Brittany felt like she was with family. But she considered the rival Titans fans potentially dangerous.
- Looking for someone to partner with on a new assignment, Dimitira tapped another older, dark-haired female, thinking they would get along.
- Mr. Birkenstock was more inclined to choose Maria for special projects than others in the class because he knew her parents were from his hometown of Chicago.
While an instinctive bias aimed at self-protection, this unwitting tendency can lead to group conflict, discrimination, and even global conflicts.
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