Phil Tetlock, Ph.D.

Professor, Author, and Expert Focused on Psychology, Political Science, Organizational Behavior, Forecasting, and Probability

"Assessing the likelihood of different outcomes is a key element of decision-making. I hope that through my collaboration with the Alliance, my work on predictions will contribute to the lives of young people in positive ways."


  • The Good Judgment Project: Co-Founder
  • University of California, Berkeley: Former Mitchell Endowed Chair in the Haas School, Former Distinguished Professor, and Former Direction of the Institute of Personality and Social Research
  • The Ohio State University: Former Burt Endowed Chair in Psychology and Political Science
  • Stanford University: Former Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences
  • The Russell Sage Foundation: Former Fellow
  • The American Academy of Arts & Sciences: Fellow
  • The MacArthur Foundation: Fellow
  • American Philosophical Society: Member


  • National Academy of Sciences: Award for Behavioral Research Relevant to the Prevention of Nuclear War
  • Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order
  • The American Psychological Association: Distinguished Scientific Awards for an Early Career Contribution to Psychology
  • American Political Science Association: Robert E. Lane Award
  • American Association for the Advancement of Science: Prize for Behavioral Science Research
  • International Society of Political Psychology
  • American Academy of Arts and Sciences


  • Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
  • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, co-authored with Dan Gardner
  • Has written, co-written, edited, or co-edited 10 books
  • Has published over 200 articles in peer-reviewed journals


  • Yale University, Ph.D. and Master’s Degree
  • University of British Columbia, Bachelor’s Degree

Phil Tetlock is a Canadian-born Psychology Professor and researcher who is fascinated by decision-making processes and attributes required for good judgment. His career has had a major impact on decision-making worldwide.

Phil serves on the faculty at the University of Pennsylvania as Annenberg University Professor, with appointments in the Wharton School in Management and the School of Arts and Sciences in Psychology. His award-winning research focuses on the evaluation of good judgment and the criteria used to assess judgment, bias, and error.

He has written several books at the intersection of psychology, political science, and organizational behavior, including Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, which won numerous awards, including from the Woodrow Wilson Foundation and the American Political Science Association.

Phil also is Co-Founder of Good Judgment Inc, an organization that tests how harnessing the wisdom of the crowd might better forecast global events.