Lesson Plan

Using the Outside View to Predict

  • Students will differentiate between the outside and inside view of a situation.
  • Students will brainstorm and consider base rates to think probabilistically as they make predictions.

Typically, when people make predictions about an event, they tend to focus only on the particular details of that specific event. This is called focusing on the inside view. But by focusing first on the outside view, or information about how other similar situations have gone before, we can make more probabilistically precise predictions about our present situation. In this lesson, students will focus on the outside view by brainstorming base rates, or how similar situations have gone in the past.

TP.4 – Use probabilistic thinking when making predictions and evaluating real-world contexts involving uncertainty

Lesson:

Introduce inside view, outside view and base rates.

Sample language:

When we make predictions about how likely something is to happen, we often think first about all the details we know about the particular situation. Considering all these details about the situation at hand is called looking at the inside view. This is a very natural starting point for most people when they are making predictions. And while looking at the inside view is important, the way we see a particular situation may be influenced by our beliefs, biases, or overconfidence.

Research has found that people who are really skilled at predicting tend to start by thinking about how other similar situations have gone before. This is called looking at the outside view. To consider the outside view, we think about how similar situations usually go on average, by using a measure called a base rate, which is the frequency of something occurring in a more general population or across time.

When making predictions, it’s useful to start with the outside view first and then look at the inside view, or what we know about the current situation. This helps us to make more accurate predictions that are less limited by our narrow perspectives.

Guide students through an example that looks at both the outside and inside views of a situation. Choose a topic that is relevant to your content area or students, or modify the example below.

Example:

How likely is it to snow before the end of this month?

  • Outside view: What relevant details do we know about how this usually goes?
  • On average, in the past five years this region has seen X number of days of snow during this month. (this is one example of the base rate)
  • On average, over the past 10 years, there have been X number of years in which there was NO snow in this month. (another base rate that could be helpful).

Suggested prompt: Based on this, how likely do you think it is to snow this month?

  • Inside view: What relevant details do we know about the current situation?
  • It has snowed one time this winter so far.
  • This week the temperature has been unseasonably warm.
  • This has been a very rainy winter.

Suggested prompt: Adding in the details of the inside view, has your initial prediction changed? Stayed the same?

Brainstorm Base Rates: Provide students with another prediction to work through. Again, this can be related to your content area, a relevant situation in students’ lives, or pulled from the sample topics below. As a whole group or in small groups, brainstorm and record different base rates that might be useful to research when exploring the Outside View. They do not have to research the actual base rates, just brainstorm what types of base rates might be useful to look into.

Sample topics

(note: base rates below are just examples. Different people may come up with different base rates to consider!)

  • The likelihood that a professional or school sports team will win a big game.
    • Example base rates: percentage of games the team has won this season; historical data on how the team usually performs in high stakes games
  • The likelihood that the school will change its policy on X before the end of the year.
    • Example base rates: how many big school policies have changed this year, in the past two years, three years, etc.; how long it has taken administration to change other policies when receiving feedback
  • The likelihood that X musician will put out a new album this year.
    • Example base rates: how many new albums they have put out in the last year, five years, etc.; average amount of time between albums for artists of the same caliber or on the same label
  • The likelihood that X school event will be attended by a large crowd/sell out
    • Example base rates: attendance at similar events over the past X number of years; attendance at this same event over the past X number of years.

 

Suggested prompt to guide students:

  • What do we know, or what would be helpful to know, about what has happened in the past in similar situations?
  • Where can we look to find out about how situations like this usually go?

Pulling together the Outside and Inside Views: In small groups or pairs, either have students consider a decision they have been grappling with or provide a situation for them to consider that is related to your content area, your school, or their lives in general. Students record the outside and inside views of the situation on paper, via digital format or using this note-take sheet. Students use these factors to make their prediction and provide a rationale.

 

As a closing reflection, have students write independently, or discuss in pairs, small groups or as a whole class.

Suggested Questions:

  • Did thinking about the outside view push or shift your thinking? If so, how?
  • Why do you think most people think mainly about the inside view?
  • Why is it important to incorporate both the outside and the inside view?

Differentiation:

For extra scaffolding, provide students with examples of inside and outside views on a particular topic, and have students identify which ones relate to the inside view, and which ones capture an outside view.

Optional extensions:

Have students research the base rates they brainstorm to see if they can find relevant data.

If your students keep a decision journal, encourage them to add a space for considering the outside view when reflecting on decisions.

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