Typically, when people make predictions about an event, they tend to focus only on the particular details of that specific event. This is called focusing on the inside view. But by focusing first on the outside view, or information about how other similar situations have gone before, we can make more probabilistically precise predictions about our present situation. In this lesson, students will focus on the outside view by brainstorming base rates, or how similar situations have gone in the past.

• Students will differentiate between the outside and inside view of a situation.
• Students will brainstorm and consider base rates to think probabilistically as they make predictions.