Understanding base rates helps students calibrate their thinking and make more informed decisions when faced with statistical data. Through engaging with concepts like base rate neglect and conditional probability via hands-on activities and visual aids, students develop crucial skills in probabilistic reasoning and evidence-based decision-making that apply across academic, personal, and real-world contexts.

This lesson plan is part of the “Developing a Decision Education Course” instructional model. To learn more about the model and to view the scope and sequence, click here.

• Considering Base Rates and the Outside View when assessing likelihoods.