From 2024-2025, the Alliance hosted a forecasting tournament study with over 300 student participants. Students made predictions about real-world events using historical and current data while practicing core Decision Education skills.
From 2024-2025, the Alliance hosted a forecasting tournament study with over 300 student participants. Students made predictions about real-world events using historical and current data while practicing core Decision Education skills.
Promising Results for the 2024-2025 Forecasting Tournament Study
Why This Matters
This study is one of the first to show that forecasting can improve decision-making skills in adolescents.
The results highlight forecasting as a powerful tool for providing students hands-on practice with essential skills that help them:
Assess risks and outcomes
more effectively
Weigh evidence more critically
Update beliefs and reasoning as new information emerges
Why This Matters
This study is one of the first to show that forecasting can improve decision-making skills in adolescents. The results highlight forecasting as a powerful tool for providing students hands-on practice with essential skills that help them:
Assess risks and outcomes
more effectively
Weigh evidence more critically
Update beliefs and reasoning as new information emerges
Spotlight Story: Fletcher’s Experience
High School student Fletcher entered the tournament unsure of how to make predictions beyond simple guesswork.
But after learning key concepts like base rates, reference classes, and the inside/outside view, he began applying data more intentionally to his forecasts. His forecasting accuracy, and the way he felt about making predictions, had meaningfully improved.
I really enjoyed the rush of getting questions correct after working so hard to make accurate predictions. This competition showed me the importance of data analysis tools for predicting future trends.
Fletcher
Lincoln College Preparatory Academy, Kansas City, Missouri
Spotlight Story: Fletcher’s Experience
High School student Fletcher entered the tournament unsure of how to make predictions beyond simple guesswork.
But after learning key concepts like base rates, reference classes, and the inside/outside view, he began applying data more intentionally to his forecasts. His forecasting accuracy, and the way he felt about making predictions, had meaningfully improved.
I really enjoyed the rush of getting questions correct after working so hard to make accurate predictions. This competition showed me the importance of data analysis tools for predicting future trends.
Fletcher
Lincoln College Preparatory Academy, Kansas City, Missouri
