Your Election Season Decision Education Toolkit
Election season can be overwhelming, especially in our era of information overload, mis- and disinformation, and hostile political discourse. Elections can trigger thoughts and emotions that may cloud our judgment, make us susceptible to thinking traps, and prevent us from effectively sorting through the mountains of data available to make an informed decision. Whether this is your first major US election or your tenth, and regardless of your political views, there are tools to help.
We’re sharing a Decision Education toolkit to help you navigate this election season.
1. Data Literacy: Understanding and Evaluating Data
The ability to interpret data correctly is essential during election season. From polling numbers, to articles and studies, to political ads, we’re constantly seeing information referencing different data—or sometimes, drawing different conclusions from the same data! Understanding the basics of data literacy will help you separate useful insights from misleading statistics, and help you navigate the election season.
Key Data Literacy Concepts to Keep in Mind:
- Source Matters: Not all data is created equal. Before accepting statistics or poll information at face value, check the source. Consider the source’s potential bias and credibility before drawing conclusions.
- Sample Size and Margin of Error: Polls are a common feature of election season. Always check the sample size (how many people were surveyed) and the margin of error. A small sample size is less likely to accurately represent the larger population. A large margin of error (e.g., ±5%) means the poll results are less reliable.
- Correlations vs. Causation: Just because two things happen together, it doesn’t mean that one caused the other. Election results, voting patterns, and other election-related data may show correlations, but be cautious about assuming cause-and-effect relationships. For example, some studies find that voter turnout drops in colder or rainier weather, and it may be tempting to believe that worse weather discourages people from voting. However, the effect may be less about temperature and more about regional differences. For example, states with milder climates, like California or Florida, tend to have different voting habits and demographics compared to colder states, which might be the true influence on turnout patterns rather than weather itself. You can learn more about the difference between correlation and causation here.
2. Weight-and-Rate Chart: A Structured Decision-Making Tool
When choosing a candidate or voting on a ballot measure, we often face the challenge of balancing multiple important issues. A weight-and-rate chart is a simple yet effective tool that can help you systematically compare candidates or ballot measures based on what you care about most.
How a Weight-and-Rate Chart Works:
A weight-and-rate chart helps you quantify your preferences and evaluate candidates or ballot measures based on those criteria. Here’s how to build one:
- List Your Criteria: Write down the key issues or values that matter most to you.
- Assign Weights: Not all criteria are equally important to everyone. Assign a weight (on a scale of 1 to 5) to each issue based on how important it is to you.
- Rate the Options: For each candidate or ballot measure, rate how well they meet the criteria, again on a scale of 1 to 5.
- Multiply and Tally: Multiply the weight by the rating for each criteria to get a weighted score. Then, add up the totals for each candidate or measure to see which one scores highest. You do not need to necessarily choose the option with the highest score, but regardless, the process enables a more comprehensive, thoughtful, and nuanced evaluation than we may otherwise initially perform.
3. Cognitive Bias Awareness: Checking Your Mental Shortcuts
Cognitive biases are mental shortcuts that can act as thinking traps that distort our decisions. By being aware of these thinking traps, you can be on the lookout for them and try to avoid falling into them.
Common Cognitive Biases to Watch For:
- Confirmation Bias: The tendency to seek out information that confirms your existing beliefs while ignoring or discrediting information that challenges them. This can lead you to dismiss valid data or perspectives simply because they don’t align with your preconceptions.
- What you can do: Make an active effort to expose yourself to and genuinely engage with diverse viewpoints, even those that you disagree with.
- Anchoring Bias: The tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information you receive (the “anchor”) when making decisions. For example, early polling numbers may shape your perception of a candidate even when newer, more reliable data is available.
- What you can do: Be mindful of when your opinion becomes fixed on a topic or candidate. Seek updated information to ensure you’re not stuck on outdated information.
- Availability Bias: Overestimating the importance of information that comes to mind easily. If you’ve recently heard negative news about a candidate, especially if it is particularly sensational or memorable, you might give it more weight than it deserves, even if it’s an outlier.
- What you can do: Take a step back and look at the bigger picture. A single event or news story should be weighed alongside all available information and not used to form conclusions or determine your vote.
- Bandwagon Effect: The tendency to adopt beliefs because they’re popular or because others in your social circle support them. We are all susceptible to peer pressure, and it can influence our political choices at any stage in our lives.
- What you can do: Pause and reflect on your own beliefs and values. Are you voting for a candidate or ballot measure because you believe in it, or because everyone around you is doing so?
Putting It All Together: Your Election Season Toolkit
Election season is a time to make important decisions that affect your community and your future. With these tools in hand, you’ll be better prepared to make informed, thoughtful choices during election season.