Forecasting the Future 2025: What Students Learned about Decision-making
This past spring, middle and high school students across the country explored how to think in probabilities, weigh evidence, and refine their judgments—all core skills of Decision Education—in our free, online tournament, Forecasting the Future 2025.
Over the course of the tournament, students discovered how fun and meaningful it can be to apply decision-making science to real-world questions. They made predictions, or forecasts, in response to questions about the future on topics like movies, travel, sports, award shows, and much more.
592 students from 179 schools in 30 states registered for this iteration of the tournament.
Join us in congratulating the winners of Forecasting the Future 2025!
- Quinn A., North Junior High, Boise, ID
- Leonna W., Stuyvesant High School, New York, NY
- Chris H., Lodi High School, Lodi, NJ
- Armistead W., Stuyvesant High School, New York, NY
- Emma K., Cherry Creek Academy, Cherry Creek, CO
- Michael Dorian M., The Blake School, Minneapolis, MN
- Mina Y., Stuyvesant High School, New York, NY
- Tournament participant*
- Andy L., Stuyvesant High School, New York, NY
- Tournament participant*
*Note: Only students with signed media releases are shown here. Rankings reflect their actual placement.
Through making forecasts, students developed decision-making skills they can use far beyond the tournament. Check out what this year’s participants had to say about the experience:
I learned how to think about probabilities instead of just guessing or going with my gut. Before, I’d usually just pick what I thought was most likely and stick with it. Through the tournament, I learned to look at the data, and consider different factors and their significance. It’s made me more careful and thoughtful when making decisions, even outside of the tournament. I’m better at weighing my options and not jumping to conclusions so quickly.
Major-wei S., The Branson School, Ross, CA
I realized that decision making isn’t a fixed trait, it’s a skill you can develop, and train for, just like any other form of leadership.
Henry K., Mamaroneck High School, Mamaroneck, NY
In the forecasting tournament, we had to look at real data, current events, and trends to make predictions and that’s actually super helpful, especially since I want to go into engineering. Engineering is all about problem-solving and thinking ahead, so learning how to break down situations and think critically has really helped me plan better and make smarter decisions in projects and competitions.
Camila S., Porter Early College High School, Brownsville, TX
The most helpful thing for me was to be patient and look for lots of information. It has affected my decision-making by making me be more aware and think more about what I'm going to do.
Emma D., Crimson Cliffs Middle School, Washington, UT
I learned the importance of updating beliefs continuously and quantitatively. Instead of sticking to an initial opinion or being swayed by my gut feelings, I learned to assign probabilities to potential outcomes and adjust those probabilities based on new information.
Joel R., John F. Kennedy Memorial High School, Iselin, NJ
My favorite part of participating in the tournament was learning how to think in probabilities and being comfortable in the uncomfortability. It was a whole process: balancing the outside view with the inside view, even if you didn't think your opinions would matter, adjusting predictions and how even the smallest changes can push numbers up or below. I also loved watching my peers approach the question differently, which reminded me of how everything doesn't have just one path that has to be taken by everyone, but instead, everyone has the possibilities to take their own paths and is not carved by someone else. It turned forecasting into a form of learning, not just guessing.
Arya D., California High School, San Ramon, CA
Participating in forecasting tournaments is one of many ways students can develop their decision-making skills—an effort at the heart of our mission to improve lives by empowering students with essential skills and dispositions for making better decisions.
Are you interested in learning more about Decision Education concepts that can help you make better forecasts? Check out our videos on reference classes, base rates, and the inside view and the outside view.
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